MLB Picks:
AI Baseball Best Bets
The MLB presents a 162-game grind where pitching matchups, park factors, and bullpen depth create consistent edges. Our AI model identifies the best bets across run lines, totals, and moneylines every day.
MLB Factors Behind Every Pick
Baseball is one of the most data-rich sports. Our model integrates the stats that actually predict outcomes.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, and opponent batting stats against RHP/LHP. The most important single factor in MLB game outcomes.
Ballpark Factors
Run environment varies dramatically by venue. Coors Field, Fenway, and Petco Park play completely differently — our model adjusts totals and run lines accordingly.
Bullpen Depth & Fatigue
Bullpen usage over the prior 3-4 days impacts closer availability and lead protection. Heavy workload flags reduce run-line confidence on favorites.
Team Offensive Trends
Rolling wOBA and OPS splits against starter handedness. Teams with strong platoon advantages get a boost against same-handed pitchers.
Weather & Wind
Wind direction and speed at first pitch materially affects home run rates and total outcomes at open-air stadiums. Included in total projections.
Line Value Identification
We compare our win probability to the implied probability in the posted moneyline to find where the market has priced a team incorrectly.
Baseball Markets We Cover
Run Line (-1.5 / +1.5)
The baseball spread. Favorites at -1.5 must win by 2+ runs; underdogs at +1.5 can lose by 1. Run lines often offer better value than the moneyline on heavy favorites.
Moneyline
Straight win probability. Our model identifies games where the underdog is systematically undervalued — often driven by starting pitcher reputation vs. actual current form.
Totals (Over/Under)
Combined runs projection based on pitcher quality, lineup vs. handedness, park factor, and weather. Our model often disagrees with market totals on pitcher-friendly parks.
First 5 Innings
Isolates the starting pitcher matchup by removing the bullpen variable. Useful when you have a strong view on the starter but uncertainty about the pen.